The methodology of balancing the federal project for the development of space assets using the confident solutions method

Аuthors

Komarchev S. .^1*, Kisilenko V. S.^1**, Sokolov V. A.^1***, Kisel S. V.^1****, Malyshev V. V.^2*****, Razumov D. A.^2******

1. Central Research Institute of Machine Building, TSNIIMash, 4, Pionerskaya str., Korolev, Moscow region, 141070, Russia
2. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia

*e-mail: KomarchevSS@tsniimash.ru
**e-mail: KisilenkoVS@tsniimash.ru
***e-mail: Sokolov_VA@tsniimash.ru
****e-mail: KiselSV@tsniimash.ru
*****e-mail: veniaminmalyshev@mail.ru
******e-mail: DmitriRazumov@yandex.ru

Abstract

Within the framework of managing the program or portfolio of projects of a space corporation, as well as when implementing projects of large complex systems, the problem arises of evaluating the results obtained taking into account a variety of criteria. Such tasks are usually multi-purpose in nature and require an assessment of each project based on a set of indicators that affect the design of the system, its development and functioning. In the field of space exploration, the cost of erroneous or insufficiently balanced decisions is too high and has a significant strategic impact on the level of scientific and technological development of the country, its economic, scientific and defense potential for many years to come. Carefully developed scientifically based decision-making methods make it possible to avoid financial losses, optimize budget spending and ultimately ensure leadership in space exploration and use. It is necessary to have the means to receive information in time to make optimal decisions, since the approaches used are not free from disadvantages, among which the most significant is the bias of expert assessments related to the interests and objectives of many structures, departments and organizations involved in the implementation of each project.
It should also be noted that a common feature of existing methods, despite their widespread use, is their dependence on the subjectivity of experts and, in most cases, on a complex, lengthy and ambiguous procedure for formalizing expert opinion. There are often problems with the convergence of expert opinions.
A new method is proposed for balancing the federal project for the development of space assets using the confident solutions method. The method makes it possible to significantly reduce the influence of subjective expert opinion on the final result and increase the speed and quality of decisions made. In addition, the proposed methodology, unlike the existing ones, provides the possibility of using additional constraints during project balancing, which expands the scope of its application. An example illustrating the effectiveness of this technique is given.

Keywords:

federal project, balancing, method of confident solutions

References

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